It's really interesting, I think, to watch a nascent theory develop within a scientific discipline and get studied/modeled/debated/etc. in real-time. Now, they are by no means the only two researchers kicking the tires, so to speak, on this fairly new idea in climatology, but for simplicity's sake, and to keep score, we'll say there are a couple lead competitors duking it out over this supposition. There's Jennifer Francis on one side who believes Arctic amplification is causing large, lasting waviness, or meanders, in the northern hemisphere's jet stream and subsequent blocking and extreme weather patterns, and then there is Elizabeth Barnes on the other side who argues there is no statistically-significant evidence to support the notion.
Here are two papers authored by Francis on the subject:
Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss.
And one from Barnes:
Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes.
As the title of Barnes' study might suggest is the case, there has certainly been some intriguing back-and-forth between the two climate experts outside of peer-review, but the true test of any scientific theory is verifiability, or corroborating evidence from other researchers, and Francis has been in the lead on that tally. And now it seems she has just scored again.
We find that decreased sea-ice cover during early winter months (November–December), especially over the Barents–Kara seas, enhances the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January–February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.
The game is far from over, but Barnes' side better mount an offensive soon, because something tells me Francis and crew ain't about to let up.
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