Wait a Second, Buddy, Aren't There Four More Basins out There?!

Yesterday, in light of multiple powerful systems heading toward Japan and Hawaii, I tallied up the past few decades of activity in three cyclone-producing basins to see if any increases in powerful storm generation would show up. My superficial, blog-ready analysis is far from rigorous or scientifically-substantial, admittedly, but I would still argue it revealed something which should make you take notice, and maybe even an upward trend that agrees with some bolder predictions.

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The astute among you realize the world has seven total tropical cyclone basins, so that leaves four more.



Lemme see what happens when I include the rest. A few quick caveats before I get started, however. I have been using the Saffir–Simpson scale to determine storm strength and categorization, and I will continue to do so (as opposed to the Météo-France scale, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency scale, or the Australian and Fiji scale, etc.). That being said, Saffir-Simpson data can be sparse for some decades/basins, especially the Northern Indian Ocean in the 80's, so if you have better numbers than mine, please source them, and I will adjust the list(s). Also, the North Indian Ocean season is a very interesting one with two peaks, May and November, so I will consider a "premature" Cat 4 or 5 event to be one that reaches such status between the beginning of January and the end of March, and when July starts until September ends. And, finally, systems can cross over into other basins in these four remaining areas. These "cross-over" cyclones will be counted more than once. That is, they will increment each basin they enter, not just, say, the one in which they originated.

OK, here goes...

North Indian Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Cs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	"P" C4s & C5s
1980	14	-	3	0	-	-	0
1981	12	-	6	0	-	-	0
1982	20	-	5	1	-	-	0
1983	8	-	3	0	-	-	0
1984	7	-	3	0	-	-	0
1985	15	-	7	0	-	-	0
1986	8	-	1	0	-	-	0
1987	9	-	5	0	-	-	0
1988	9	-	3	0	-	-	0
1989	10	-	3	1	1785	$25.3 mil	0
1990	11	-	2	1	967	$600 mil	0
1991	8	-	3	1	~138000	$1.5 bil	0
1992	13	-	7	1	~949	~$69 mil	0
1993	3	-	2	0	-	-	0
1994	5	-	4	1	-	-	0
1995	8	-	3	0	~71	-	0
1996	9	-	5	1	~1243	-	0
1997	9	-	3	1	117	-	0
1998	13	-	6	0	~14577	~$3 bil	0
1999	9	-	5	2	~15,780	$5 bil	0
2000	6	-	5	0	152	-	0
2001	7	-	5	0	108	-	0
2002	7	-	4	0	~182	$25 mil	0
2003	7	-	3	0	358	$163 mil	0
2004	10	-	4	0	~534	-	0
2005	14	-	4	0	~5227	-	0
2006	13	-	3	1	623	$6.7 mil	0
2007	11	-	4	2	~4648	~$6.4 bil	0
2008	10	-	4	1	140442	~$14.7 bil	0
2009	8	-	4	0	~8629	$618.4 mil	0
2010	8	-	5	2	402	~$3 bil	0
2011	10	-	2	0	360	~$277 mil	0
2012	5	-	2	0	128	~$56.7 mil	0
2013	10	-	5	1	323	~$1.5 bil	0
2014	5	-	1	0	23	-	0

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season, or "prematurely."

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-9	2	0
1990-9	8	0
2000-9	4	0
2010-4	3 (*7)	0 (*0)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season, or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

South-West Indian Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Cs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81	12	-	6	0	-	-	0
1981-82	12	-	4	1	-	-	1
1982-83	8	-	0	0	33	$23 mil	0
1983-84	14	-	4	1	356	$496 mil	1
1984-85	9	-	1	0	-	-	0
1985-86	13	-	7	1	-	-	0
1986-87	9	-	1	0	7	-	0
1987-88	12	-	4	2	200	-	1
1988-89	16	-	5	2	-	-	1
1989-90	9	-	4	1	-	-	1
1990-91	11	-	3	1	88	-	1
1991-92	13	-	3	3	2	-	0
1992-93	18	-	4	1	~24	-	0
1993-94	18	-	8	3	484	$165 mil	0
1994-95	13	-	5	2	0	-	1
1995-96	21	-	6	4	109	-	2
1996-97	14	-	5	4	311	$50 mil	4
1997-98	16	-	1	1	~144	-	0
1998-99	14	-	2	1	2	-	0
1999-00	14	-	4	3	~1000	-	1
2000-01	11	-	5	1	2	-	1
2001-02	15	-	9	4	52	$287 mil	1
2002-03	16	-	3	2	149	$3 mil	0
2003-04	16	-	8	2	396	$250 mil	0
2004-05	18	-	4	2	253	-	1
2005-06	13	-	3	1	26	-	0
2006-07	15	-	7	4	174	$266 mil	1
2007-08	15	-	6	3	127	$38 mil	0
2008-09	12	-	2	2	32	-	1
2009-10	16	-	5	3	120	-	2
2010-11	9	-	2	0	22	-	0
2011-12	14	-	3	2	164	-	1
2012-13	10	-	7	3	35	$46 mil	3
2013-14	13	-	5	4	11	$89.2 mil	3

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81 to 89-90	8	5
1990-91 to 99-00	23	9
2000-01 to 09-10	24	7
2010-11 to 13-14	9 (*22)	7 (*17)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Australian Region Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Cs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81	14	-	9	1	-	-	0
1981-82	14	-	6	0	-	-	0
1982-83	7	-	4	0	-	-	0
1983-84	22	-	9	1	1	$19 mil	0
1984-85	20	-	8	2	0	$3.5 mil	0
1985-86	17	-	6	0	153	$250 mil	0
1986-87	7	-	2	0	0	$0	0
1987-88	5	-	3	0	1	$15.6 mil	0
1988-89	14	-	6	3	6	$93.9 mil	0
1989-90	13	-	6	1	-	-	0
1990-91	10	-	10	0	27	-	0
1991-92	11	-	10	5	5	$9.4 mil	1
1992-93	6	-	3	1	0	$950 mil	0
1993-94	12	-	11	2	22	-	1
1994-95	19	-	9	1	1	-	0
1995-96	19	-	14	2	1	$58.5 mil	1
1996-97	15	-	14	2	34	$190 mil	2
1997-98	10	-	9	1	-	-	1
1998-99	21	-	14	4	8	$250 mil	1
1999-00	13	-	12	4	0	$251 mil	1
2000-01	9	-	8	0	163	$12.8 mil	0
2001-02	14	-	10	1	19	$929,000	0
2002-03	10	-	9	1	62	$28 mil	0
2003-04	13	-	10	2	-	$20 mil	0
2004-05	13	-	10	1	5	$14.4 mil	0
2005-06	17	-	14	5	1	$808 mil	1
2006-07	8	-	6	0	3	-	0
2007-08	23	-	9	0	170	$86 mil	0
2008-09	23	-	11	1	5	$103 mil	0
2009-10	13	-	8	2	3	$681 mil	1
2010-11	28	-	10	1	3	3.56 bil	0
2011-12	20	-	8	0	16	-	0
2012-13	18	-	9	1	20	$2.5 bil	1
2013-14	24	-	10	2	22	$958 mil	0

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81 to 89-90	8	0
1990-91 to 99-00	22	8
2000-01 to 09-10	13	2
2010-11 to 13-14	4 (*10)	1 (*2)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

South Pacific Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Cs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81	14	-	14	0	-	-	0
1981-82	6	-	6	0	-	-	0
1982-83	16	-	14	0	-	-	0
1983-84	8	-	8	0	-	-	0
1984-85	9	-	9	1	-	-	0
1985-86	10	-	10	0	~150	-	0
1986-87	13	-	12	0	50	$150 mil	0
1987-88	6	-	5	1	-	-	1
1988-89	14	-	14	1	-	-	0
1989-90	11	-	6	1	8	$180 mil	0
1990-91	5	-	3	1	0	$18.5 mil	1
1991-92	12	-	11	3	21	-	1
1992-93	10	-	10	2	0	-	1
1993-94	7	-	5	1	0	-	0
1994-95	3	-	2	0	0	$2.5 mil	0
1995-96	6	-	4	0	2	$4.3 mil	0
1996-97	13	-	12	3	27	$44 mil	1
1997-98	20	-	16	2	50	$7.6 mil	2
1998-99	27	-	8	1	-	-	1
1999-00	24	-	6	0	1	-	0
2000-01	16	-	4	0	7	$800,000	0
2001-02	16	-	5	0	1	$51.3 mil	0
2002-03	18	-	10	4	50	$102 mil	2
2003-04	15	-	3	1	16	$387 mil	1
2004-05	19	-	9	4	2	$55 mil	0
2005-06	<15/td>	-	5	0	0	$25,000	0
2006-07	15	-	6	1	4	$4 mil	1
2007-08	16	-	4	0	8	$46 mil	0
2008-09	15	-	6	0	11	$65 mil	0
2009-10	15	-	8	3	12	$163 mil	0
2010-11	17	-	8	2	4	$25 mil	1
2011-12	20	-	3	1	13	$17.2 mil	0
2012-13	22	-	5	1	16	$161 mil	1
2013-14	20	-	6	1	12	~$4.3 mil	1

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-81 to 89-90	4	1
1990-91 to 99-00	13	7
2000-01 to 09-10	13	4
2010-11 to 13-14	5 (*12)	3 (*7)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Now I can check off all my basins, and add them up for world numbers...

The Last 3-4 Decades for Worldwide Basins

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-9	108	27
1990-9	190	55
2000-9	176	53
2010-4	54 (*135)	27 (*67)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, P-A C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Once again, I would say that those numbers, while suggesting total Cat 4 & 5's produced globally by the end of the decade may decline from the 1990's and 2000's figures, still show the rate of strong storm creation is greater than what natural factors alone in the basins can account for. And they are coming earlier and earlier in the various cyclone seasons.