Comparison of Three Different Cylcone-Producing Basins

With news coverage predominantly and understandably focused on Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, etc., you may not realize that an unprecedented storm situation could descend on Hawaii soon.

It is extremely rare to have such major storms in such quick succession, according to Weather Channel lead meteorologist Kevin Roth. He said the most recent example was in 1982 when two significantly weaker tropical storms and depressions hit ten days apart.

“In 75 years of reliable data you only have one case where they were even 10 days apart,” he said. And for Hawaii to be facing two spaced just two to three days apart? “This is unprecedented in the satellite era,” Roth added.

The northeast Pacific hurricane basin certainly has produced multiple storms simultaneously before (e.g.: Gilma, Fabio, and Hector in 1988), but it rarely creates them strong enough to survive the journey over the colder current between it and Hawaii. As deniers will leap out of their shoes pointing out, it is most likely a strong El Nino year, but we've had such warm ocean conditions many times before in the past without this situation arising. Deniers will also probably try to use a slow Atlantic hurricane season as a shiny object-style distraction, but, problem for them is, we do often see that happen during El Nino events. As with the silly tricks they tried to pull to downplay Sandy's significance, that nonsense won't get them very far. Also, we can add to Hawaii's rare troubles here the fact that farther to the west Japan is experiencing a similar worrisome double-cyclone hit.

Typhoon Halong, which peaked at a monstrous Category Five intensity during the weekend...will be the second tropical cyclone to strike [Japan] so far this season...Tropical Storm Nakri dumped very heavy rain in Japan over the past few days, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. As Weather.com reported, a spot on the large southern island of Shikoku, which lies in the path of Halong, recorded an astounding 44.82 inches of rain in the three-day period ending around noon on Monday, local time.

Nearly four feet of rain, and now they have another cyclone headed their way.

Again, deniers will just shrug off such extreme weather, like they do every other bit of evidence that our climate is changing dramatically thanks to our emissions, so let's take a look at some cyclone data from the past few decades to see if anything stands out.

Northwest Pacific Typhoon Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Ts	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	P-A C4s & C5s
1980	28	24	15	4	?	?	1
1981	35	29	13	4	1129	?	0
1982	29	25	19	6	~803	~$2.41 bil	2
1983	32	23	10	6	1073	$258.3 mil	1
1984	31	27	16	7	2916	$142.7 mil	1
1985	30	28	15	1	1393	$241.2 mil	0
1986	32	30	19	4	905	$523.5 mil	2
1987	25	24	17	8	~1442	?	2
1988	28	27	11	6	~542	~$1.3 bil	2
1989	42	34	21	7	~3459	$2.1 bil	2
1990	35	32	18	7	~1,576	$2.7 bil	2
1991	35	31	17	9	6397	$3.1 bil	2
1992	34	31	16	9	385	$2.78 bil	1
1993	43	30	15	6	668	$1.75 bil	1
1994	46	36	19	11	2,539	$8.3 bil	2
1995	34	24	8	6	1,317	$1.21 bil	0
1996	43	31	16	8	873	$6.87 bil	3
1997	32	29	24	11	~3,845	$6.34 bil	3
1998	27	18	9	4	~691	~$4.8 bil	0
1999	35	26	5	1	~1289	$4.5 bil	0
2000	39	26	13	6	624	~$6.27 bil	2
2001	40	29	16	5	1287	$2.3 bil	0
2002	37	28	15	10	725	$9.54 bil	5
2003	35	21	14	9	360	~$5.73 bil	4
2004	39	33	19	12	2073	~$19.4 bil	5
2005	31	24	16	9	431	~$7.2 bil	3
2006	33	25	15	10	~2704	$35.8 bil	2
2007	32	24	14	8	~580	~$6.3 bil	3*
2008	40	26	12	5	~1703	$5.8 bil	2
2009	41	22	13	7	~2470	$12.23 bil	1
2010	32	15	7	2	398	$2.31 bil	0
2011	40	21	8	7	1800	~$4.91 bil	3
2012	35	25	14	7	1681	$5.73 bil	2
2013	51	31	13	8	6825	$22.8 bil	1
2014	17	12	5	3	349	$7.38 bil	2

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Ts = typhoons, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 typhoons, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-A C4s & C5s = typhoons that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*In 2007, Typhoon Usagi may or may not have reached peak intensity before Aug. 1st.

Dec	C4s & C5s	P-A C4s & C5s
1980-9	53	13
1990-9	71	14
2000-9	81	27
2010-4	27 (60*)	8 (15*)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 typhoons, P-A C4s & C5s = typhoons that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Hs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	P-A C4s & C5s
1980	16	15	7	1	0	?	0
1981	17	15	8	0	79	$134 mil	0
1982	30	23	12	1	~1000	$2.4 bil	0
1983	26	21	12	5	170	$773.8 mil	2
1984	26	21	13	4	0	?	2
1985	28	24	13	3	1	$1 mil	2
1986	26	17	9	3	2	$352 mil	1
1987	20	10	4	2	3	$144.22 mil	0
1988	23	15	7	2	3	?	0
1989	25	17	9	2	~14	$1.75 mil	0
1990	27	21	16	4	18	?	1
1991	16	14	10	2	~3	?	0
1992	30	28	16	7	17	$2 bil	3
1993	18	15	11	7	42	~$1.7 bil	1
1994	22	20	10	5	~34	$735 mil	2
1995	11	10	7	3	124	$31 mil	2
1996	14	9	5	1	41	?	0
1997	24	19	9	6	531	$551 mil	1
1998	16	13	9	3	23	~$10 mil	1
1999	14	9	6	1	16	?	0
2000	21	19	6	1	18	$14 mil	1
2001	19	15	8	2	9	$400 mil	1
2002	19	15	8	4	4	$101 mil	1
2003	17	16	7	0	14	$1 bil	0
2004	17	12	6	2	0	?	0
2005	17	15	7	1	7	$12 mil	0
2006	25	19	11	3	14	$355 mil	1
2007	15	11	4	1	~51	$80 mil	0
2008	19	17	7	1	~45	$152.5 mil	0
2009	23	20	8	3	~15	$188.7 mil	0
2010	13	8	3	1	~243	$1.6 bil	1
2011	13	11	10	5	42	~$203.67 mil	2
2012	17	17	10	1	8	$123.2 mil	1
2013	21	20	9	0	135	$4.2 bil	0
2014	11	11	4	3	9	?	2

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Hs = hurricanes, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

Dec	C4s & C5s	P-A C4s & C5s
1980-9	23	7
1990-9	39	11
2000-9	18	4
2010-4	10 (*15)	6 (*10)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Atlantic Hurricane Seasons 1980-2014

Yr	TDs	NSs	Hs	C4s & C5s	TFs	TD	P-S* C4s & C5s
1980	15	11	9	1	256	$1 billion	1
1981	18	12	7	1	10	$45 million	0
1982	9	6	2	1	141	$100 million	0
1983	7	4	3	0	22	$2.6 billion	0
1984	17	13	5	1	35	$66 million	0
1985	13	11	7	1	241	$4.5 billion	0
1986	10	6	4	0	70	$57 million	0
1987	14	7	3	0	10	$73 million	0
1988	19	12	5	3	550	$7 billion	0
1989	15	11	7	2	112	$10.7 billion	0
1990	16	14	8	0	116	$150 million	0
1991	12	8	4	1	30	$2.5 billion	0
1992	9	7	4	1	66	$26 billion	1
1993	10	8	4	0	274	$271 million	0
1994	12	7	3	0	1184	$1.56 billion	0
1995	21	19	11	3	115	$9.3 billion	1
1996	13	13	9	2	179	$3.8 billion	1
1997	9	8	3	0	11	$110 million	0
1998	14	14	10	2	~12000	$12.2 billion	0
1999	16	12	8	5	465	$5.9 billion	2
2000	19	15	8	2	79	$1.2 billion	0
2001	17	15	9	2	105	$7.1 billion	0
2002	14	12	4	1	23	$2.6 billion	0
2003	21	16	7	2	92	$4.4 billion	1**
2004	17	15	9	4	~3100	$50 billion	2
2005	31	28	15	5	~2280	$128 billion	3
2006	10	10	5	0	14	$0.5 billion	0
2007	17	15	6	2	423	$3 billion	1
2008	17	16	8	4	1047	$42 billion	1
2009	11	9	3	1	6	$0.08 billion	1
2010	21	19	12	4	314	$12.36 billion	2
2011	20	19	7	2	114	$18.59 billion	0
2012	19	19	10	0	345	$77.97 billion	0
2013	15	14	2	0	47	$1.51 billion	0
2014	3	2	2	0	1	$13.9 million	0

Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Hs = hurricanes, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-S C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-September.

*The Atlantic basin generally does not produce powerful storms before August, so September has been chosen as the starting point instead.

**Hurricane Fabian may or may not have developed into a Category 4 hurricane before September 1st.

Dec	C4s & C5s	P-S* C4s & C5s
1980-9	10	1
1990-9	14	5
2000-9	23	9
2010-4	6 (**15)	2 (**5)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-September.

*The Atlantic basin generally does not produce powerful storms before August, so September has been chosen as the starting point instead.

**Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

The Last 3-4 Decades for All 3 Basins

Dec	C4s & C5s	"P" C4s & C5s
1980-9	86	21
1990-9	124	30
2000-9	122	40
2010-4	43 (*107)	16 (*40)

Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 storms, P-A C4s & C5s = storms that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).

Personally, I think it's rather evident that, despite what could be a slight decrease in numbers by the end of this decade, strong storms are on the rise due to climate change, and are coming earlier in the season perhaps due to warmer oceans.