"Even the IPCC Says..."

The IPCC recently released its latest Synthesis Report, so you can expect those in the deniosphere will be falling over themselves to win awards for making the most paranoid and ignorant remarks about it (because obviously the best way to rig elections is to produce climate assessments, dontchyaknow, or so says my giant tin foil hat, and flooding, dangerous heatwaves, ill health, violent conflicts, etc., are all ever so dull and boring anymore...just ask those whose lives are negatively impacted). That kinda brute force denier stupidity is just a given at this point, but there's a more insidious and underhanded approach they employ every now and then which involves trying to make it look like the IPCC itself refutes man-made global warming. It usually starts with the following four words or something similar...

"Even the IPCC says..."

Allow me to translate what starting a statement this way really means.



To give you an idea what I mean here, I'm gonna make some predictions based on previous personal observations about how deniers will misrepresent the report's findings. Here goes...

The denier version of the report:

"Even the IPCC says, 'It is virtually certain that globally the lower stratosphere has cooled since the mid-20th century.'"

What the report actually says:

It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed and the lower stratosphere has cooled since the mid-20th century.

The denier version of the report:

"Even the IPCC says, 'It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased in the range of 1.2% to 1.8% per decade (range of 0.13 to 0.20 million km^2 per decade) between 1979 and 2012.'"

What the report actually says:

For the [Arctic] summer sea ice minimum, the decrease was very likely in the range of 9.4% to 13.6% per decade (range of 0.73 to 1.07 million km^2 per decade) (see Figure 1.1). It is very likely that the annual mean Antarctic sea ice extent increased in the range of 1.2% to 1.8% per decade (range of 0.13 to 0.20 million km^2 per decade) between 1979 and 2012. However, there is high confidence that there are strong regional differences in Antarctica, with extent increasing in some regions and decreasing in others.

The denier version of the report:

"Even the IPCC says, 'Since 1993, [rates of sea-level rise] for much of the Eastern Pacific are near zero or negative.'"

What the report actually says:

Rates of sea-level rise over broad regions can be several times larger or smaller than the global mean sea-level rise for periods of several decades, due to fluctuations in ocean circulation. Since 1993, the regional rates for the Western Pacific are up to three times larger than the global mean, while those for much of the Eastern Pacific are near zero or negative.

The denier version of the report:

"Even the IPCC says, 'For the period from 1998 to 2012, 111 of the 114 available climate-model simulations show a surface warming trend larger than the observations.'"

What the report actually says:

For the period from 1998 to 2012, 111 of the 114 available climate-model simulations show a surface warming trend larger than the observations. There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by natural internal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long-term externally forced warming trend (compare Box 1.1 Figures 1a and 1b; during the period from 1984 to 1998, most model simulations show a smaller warming trend than observed). Natural internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of short trends for long-term climate change. For the longer period from 1951 to 2012, simulated surface warming trends are consistent with the observed trend.

The denier version of the report:

"Even the IPCC says, 'Due to a low level of scientific understanding, there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades.'"

What the report actually says:

Anthropogenic influences have very likely contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979. Anthropogenic influences likely contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993. Due to a low level of scientific understanding, however, there is low confidence in attributing the causes of the observed loss of mass from the Antarctic ice sheet over the past two decades.

In the upcoming days and weeks, keep your eyes peeled for deceptive denier cherry-picking along these lines, because I can nearly guarantee it's on the way.