Saturday, August 9, 2014

Steven Goddard, the Sad, Sad, Little Troll, Part 1

Steven Goddard would like to remind you once again that his "grasp" of science is so infantile he does not know the difference between one scientist and a consensus, and foundational and frontier research.

"In 1950, the scientific consensus was that continents don’t move, and that there was life on Mars"






His "understanding" is so abysmal that one MIT researcher's analysis amounts to a consensus in geology for Goddard, and decades before we reached the Moon or had a meaningful human presence in space, let alone telescopes in orbit around the Earth, Sun, and Mars and rovers on the surface of Mars, which make robust observations that negate our uninformed best-guesses about the possibility of life there, or years before we even conceived of the field of astrobiology, to him, this nascent level of astronomical study in the 50's somehow equates to what we know about the interaction between climate and our emissions today thanks to well over a century of climatological research.

Goddard displays the same pathetic inability to distinguish between established scientific fact and groundbreaking research here as Rush Limbaugh often does in his absolutely worthless misinformation-fest of a radio show. In fact, wallowing in this brand of blockheaded, willful ignorance seems to be the preferred behavior of most if not all science deniers.

I suppose I should be thankful, however, because as far as sources of unbelievable, head-slapping denier stupidity are concerned, he's the gift that keeps on giving.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Climate Change = More Dead Trees = More Fuel for Wildfires = Duh

The eight worst years on US record, in terms of area lost to wildfires, have occurred since 2000. Shut up and listen to our nation's top science advisor tell you like it is.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Bill Nye for Universal Overlord



I would only add one thing regarding the credentials issue raised early on in the video. You could have just evolved barely enough to grow a set of rudimentary limbs and crawled out of some bubbling, primordial ooze too soon to develop a neocortex, let alone pass a single technical course or earn a degree, skill, or expertise of any kind, then raised your drooling, dripping self to a swaying, semi-erect stance with your proto-knuckles dragging on the ground, declared to the world in halting caveman grunts, "SLIME SCHOOL NOT HAVE SCIENCE CLASS," and it would matter very little, as long as you trusted and listened to the analyses and explanations of people who do understand the issue. If you managed that much, despite your primitive state of intellectual progress, you would still exhibit more intelligence, common sense, and rational wherewithal than your average climate change denier, or, truly, even those "above average" ones with advanced degrees, who should know better, but unfortunately do not.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Wait a Second, Buddy, Aren't There Four More Basins out There?!

Yesterday, in light of multiple powerful systems heading toward Japan and Hawaii, I tallied up the past few decades of activity in three cyclone-producing basins to see if any increases in powerful storm generation would show up. My superficial, blog-ready analysis is far from rigorous or scientifically-substantial, admittedly, but I would still argue it revealed something which should make you take notice, and maybe even an upward trend that agrees with some bolder predictions.

.


The astute among you realize the world has seven total tropical cyclone basins, so that leaves four more.



Lemme see what happens when I include the rest. A few quick caveats before I get started, however. I have been using the Saffir–Simpson scale to determine storm strength and categorization, and I will continue to do so (as opposed to the Météo-France scale, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency scale, or the Australian and Fiji scale, etc.). That being said, Saffir-Simpson data can be sparse for some decades/basins, especially the Northern Indian Ocean in the 80's, so if you have better numbers than mine, please source them, and I will adjust the list(s). Also, the North Indian Ocean season is a very interesting one with two peaks, May and November, so I will consider a "premature" Cat 4 or 5 event to be one that reaches such status between the beginning of January and the end of March, and when July starts until September ends. And, finally, systems can cross over into other basins in these four remaining areas. These "cross-over" cyclones will be counted more than once. That is, they will increment each basin they enter, not just, say, the one in which they originated.

OK, here goes...

North Indian Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Cs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980 14 - 3 0 - - 0
1981 12 - 6 0 - - 0
1982 20 - 5 1 - - 0
1983 8 - 3 0 - - 0
1984 7 - 3 0 - - 0
1985 15 - 7 0 - - 0
1986 8 - 1 0 - - 0
1987 9 - 5 0 - - 0
1988 9 - 3 0 - - 0
1989 10 - 3 1 1785 $25.3 mil 0
1990 11 - 2 1 967 $600 mil 0
1991 8 - 3 1 ~138000 $1.5 bil 0
1992 13 - 7 1 ~949 ~$69 mil 0
1993 3 - 2 0 - - 0
1994 5 - 4 1 - - 0
1995 8 - 3 0 ~71 - 0
1996 9 - 5 1 ~1243 - 0
1997 9 - 3 1 117 - 0
1998 13 - 6 0 ~14577 ~$3 bil 0
1999 9 - 5 2 ~15,780 $5 bil 0
2000 6 - 5 0 152 - 0
2001 7 - 5 0 108 - 0
2002 7 - 4 0 ~182 $25 mil 0
2003 7 - 3 0 358 $163 mil 0
2004 10 - 4 0 ~534 - 0
2005 14 - 4 0 ~5227 - 0
2006 13 - 3 1 623 $6.7 mil 0
2007 11 - 4 2 ~4648 ~$6.4 bil 0
2008 10 - 4 1 140442 ~$14.7 bil 0
2009 8 - 4 0 ~8629 $618.4 mil 0
2010 8 - 5 2 402 ~$3 bil 0
2011 10 - 2 0 360 ~$277 mil 0
2012 5 - 2 0 128 ~$56.7 mil 0
2013 10 - 5 1 323 ~$1.5 bil 0
2014 5 - 1 0 23 - 0
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season, or "prematurely."

   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-9 2 0
1990-9 8 0
2000-9 4 0
2010-4 3 (*7) 0 (*0)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season, or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


South-West Indian Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Cs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 12 - 6 0 - - 0
1981-82 12 - 4 1 - - 1
1982-83 8 - 0 0 33 $23 mil 0
1983-84 14 - 4 1 356 $496 mil 1
1984-85 9 - 1 0 - - 0
1985-86 13 - 7 1 - - 0
1986-87 9 - 1 0 7 - 0
1987-88 12 - 4 2 200 - 1
1988-89 16 - 5 2 - - 1
1989-90 9 - 4 1 - - 1
1990-91 11 - 3 1 88 - 1
1991-92 13 - 3 3 2 - 0
1992-93 18 - 4 1 ~24 - 0
1993-94 18 - 8 3 484 $165 mil 0
1994-95 13 - 5 2 0 - 1
1995-96 21 - 6 4 109 - 2
1996-97 14 - 5 4 311 $50 mil 4
1997-98 16 - 1 1 ~144 - 0
1998-99 14 - 2 1 2 - 0
1999-00 14 - 4 3 ~1000 - 1
2000-01 11 - 5 1 2 - 1
2001-02 15 - 9 4 52 $287 mil 1
2002-03 16 - 3 2 149 $3 mil 0
2003-04 16 - 8 2 396 $250 mil 0
2004-05 18 - 4 2 253 - 1
2005-06 13 - 3 1 26 - 0
2006-07 15 - 7 4 174 $266 mil 1
2007-08 15 - 6 3 127 $38 mil 0
2008-09 12 - 2 2 32 - 1
2009-10 16 - 5 3 120 - 2
2010-11 9 - 2 0 22 - 0
2011-12 14 - 3 2 164 - 1
2012-13 10 - 7 3 35 $46 mil 3
2013-14 13 - 5 4 11 $89.2 mil 3
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."



   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 to 89-90 8 5
1990-91 to 99-00 23 9
2000-01 to 09-10 24 7
2010-11 to 13-14 9 (*22) 7 (*17)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Australian Region Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Cs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 14 - 9 1 - - 0
1981-82 14 - 6 0 - - 0
1982-83 7 - 4 0 - - 0
1983-84 22 - 9 1 1 $19 mil 0
1984-85 20 - 8 2 0 $3.5 mil 0
1985-86 17 - 6 0 153 $250 mil 0
1986-87 7 - 2 0 0 $0 0
1987-88 5 - 3 0 1 $15.6 mil 0
1988-89 14 - 6 3 6 $93.9 mil 0
1989-90 13 - 6 1 - - 0
1990-91 10 - 10 0 27 - 0
1991-92 11 - 10 5 5 $9.4 mil 1
1992-93 6 - 3 1 0 $950 mil 0
1993-94 12 - 11 2 22 - 1
1994-95 19 - 9 1 1 - 0
1995-96 19 - 14 2 1 $58.5 mil 1
1996-97 15 - 14 2 34 $190 mil 2
1997-98 10 - 9 1 - - 1
1998-99 21 - 14 4 8 $250 mil 1
1999-00 13 - 12 4 0 $251 mil 1
2000-01 9 - 8 0 163 $12.8 mil 0
2001-02 14 - 10 1 19 $929,000 0
2002-03 10 - 9 1 62 $28 mil 0
2003-04 13 - 10 2 - $20 mil 0
2004-05 13 - 10 1 5 $14.4 mil 0
2005-06 17 - 14 5 1 $808 mil 1
2006-07 8 - 6 0 3 - 0
2007-08 23 - 9 0 170 $86 mil 0
2008-09 23 - 11 1 5 $103 mil 0
2009-10 13 - 8 2 3 $681 mil 1
2010-11 28 - 10 1 3 3.56 bil 0
2011-12 20 - 8 0 16 - 0
2012-13 18 - 9 1 20 $2.5 bil 1
2013-14 24 - 10 2 22 $958 mil 0
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."



   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 to 89-90 8 0
1990-91 to 99-00 22 8
2000-01 to 09-10 13 2
2010-11 to 13-14 4 (*10) 1 (*2)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


South Pacific Ocean Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Cs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 14 - 14 0 - - 0
1981-82 6 - 6 0 - - 0
1982-83 16 - 14 0 - - 0
1983-84 8 - 8 0 - - 0
1984-85 9 - 9 1 - - 0
1985-86 10 - 10 0 ~150 - 0
1986-87 13 - 12 0 50 $150 mil 0
1987-88 6 - 5 1 - - 1
1988-89 14 - 14 1 - - 0
1989-90 11 - 6 1 8 $180 mil 0
1990-91 5 - 3 1 0 $18.5 mil 1
1991-92 12 - 11 3 21 - 1
1992-93 10 - 10 2 0 - 1
1993-94 7 - 5 1 0 - 0
1994-95 3 - 2 0 0 $2.5 mil 0
1995-96 6 - 4 0 2 $4.3 mil 0
1996-97 13 - 12 3 27 $44 mil 1
1997-98 20 - 16 2 50 $7.6 mil 2
1998-99 27 - 8 1 - - 1
1999-00 24 - 6 0 1 - 0
2000-01 16 - 4 0 7 $800,000 0
2001-02 16 - 5 0 1 $51.3 mil 0
2002-03 18 - 10 4 50 $102 mil 2
2003-04 15 - 3 1 16 $387 mil 1
2004-05 19 - 9 4 2 $55 mil 0
2005-06 <15/td> - 5 0 0 $25,000 0
2006-07 15 - 6 1 4 $4 mil 1
2007-08 16 - 4 0 8 $46 mil 0
2008-09 15 - 6 0 11 $65 mil 0
2009-10 15 - 8 3 12 $163 mil 0
2010-11 17 - 8 2 4 $25 mil 1
2011-12 20 - 3 1 13 $17.2 mil 0
2012-13 22 - 5 1 16 $161 mil 1
2013-14 20 - 6 1 12 ~$4.3 mil 1
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Cs = cyclones, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."



   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-81 to 89-90 4 1
1990-91 to 99-00 13 7
2000-01 to 09-10 13 4
2010-11 to 13-14 5 (*12) 3 (*7)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, "P" C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 well before peak season (February & March), or "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Now I can check off all my basins, and add them up for world numbers...

The Last 3-4 Decades for Worldwide Basins

   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-9 108 27
1990-9 190 55
2000-9 176 53
2010-4 54 (*135) 27 (*67)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 cyclones, P-A C4s & C5s = cyclones that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Once again, I would say that those numbers, while suggesting total Cat 4 & 5's produced globally by the end of the decade may decline from the 1990's and 2000's figures, still show the rate of strong storm creation is greater than what natural factors alone in the basins can account for. And they are coming earlier and earlier in the various cyclone seasons.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Comparison of Three Different Cylcone-Producing Basins



With news coverage predominantly and understandably focused on Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, etc., you may not realize that an unprecedented storm situation could descend on Hawaii soon.

It is extremely rare to have such major storms in such quick succession, according to Weather Channel lead meteorologist Kevin Roth. He said the most recent example was in 1982 when two significantly weaker tropical storms and depressions hit ten days apart.

“In 75 years of reliable data you only have one case where they were even 10 days apart,” he said. And for Hawaii to be facing two spaced just two to three days apart? “This is unprecedented in the satellite era,” Roth added.


The northeast Pacific hurricane basin certainly has produced multiple storms simultaneously before (e.g.: Gilma, Fabio, and Hector in 1988), but it rarely creates them strong enough to survive the journey over the colder current between it and Hawaii. As deniers will leap out of their shoes pointing out, it is most likely a strong El Nino year, but we've had such warm ocean conditions many times before in the past without this situation arising. Deniers will also probably try to use a slow Atlantic hurricane season as a shiny object-style distraction, but, problem for them is, we do often see that happen during El Nino events. As with the silly tricks they tried to pull to downplay Sandy's significance, that nonsense won't get them very far. Also, we can add to Hawaii's rare troubles here the fact that farther to the west Japan is experiencing a similar worrisome double-cyclone hit.

Typhoon Halong, which peaked at a monstrous Category Five intensity during the weekend...will be the second tropical cyclone to strike [Japan] so far this season...Tropical Storm Nakri dumped very heavy rain in Japan over the past few days, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. As Weather.com reported, a spot on the large southern island of Shikoku, which lies in the path of Halong, recorded an astounding 44.82 inches of rain in the three-day period ending around noon on Monday, local time.


Nearly four feet of rain, and now they have another cyclone headed their way.

Again, deniers will just shrug off such extreme weather, like they do every other bit of evidence that our climate is changing dramatically thanks to our emissions, so let's take a look at some cyclone data from the past few decades to see if anything stands out.

Northwest Pacific Typhoon Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Ts       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       P-A C4s & C5s  
1980 28 24 15 4 ? ? 1
1981 35 29 13 4 1129 ? 0
1982 29 25 19 6 ~803 ~$2.41 bil 2
1983 32 23 10 6 1073 $258.3 mil 1
1984 31 27 16 7 2916 $142.7 mil 1
1985 30 28 15 1 1393 $241.2 mil 0
1986 32 30 19 4 905 $523.5 mil 2
1987 25 24 17 8 ~1442 ? 2
1988 28 27 11 6 ~542 ~$1.3 bil 2
1989 42 34 21 7 ~3459 $2.1 bil 2
1990 35 32 18 7 ~1,576 $2.7 bil 2
1991 35 31 17 9 6397 $3.1 bil 2
1992 34 31 16 9 385 $2.78 bil 1
1993 43 30 15 6 668 $1.75 bil 1
1994 46 36 19 11 2,539 $8.3 bil 2
1995 34 24 8 6 1,317 $1.21 bil 0
1996 43 31 16 8 873 $6.87 bil 3
1997 32 29 24 11 ~3,845 $6.34 bil 3
1998 27 18 9 4 ~691 ~$4.8 bil 0
1999 35 26 5 1 ~1289 $4.5 bil 0
2000 39 26 13 6 624 ~$6.27 bil 2
2001 40 29 16 5 1287 $2.3 bil 0
2002 37 28 15 10 725 $9.54 bil 5
2003 35 21 14 9 360 ~$5.73 bil 4
2004 39 33 19 12 2073 ~$19.4 bil 5
2005 31 24 16 9 431 ~$7.2 bil 3
2006 33 25 15 10 ~2704 $35.8 bil 2
2007 32 24 14 8 ~580 ~$6.3 bil 3*
2008 40 26 12 5 ~1703 $5.8 bil 2
2009 41 22 13 7 ~2470 $12.23 bil 1
2010 32 15 7 2 398 $2.31 bil 0
2011 40 21 8 7 1800 ~$4.91 bil 3
2012 35 25 14 7 1681 $5.73 bil 2
2013 51 31 13 8 6825 $22.8 bil 1
2014 17 12 5 3 349 $7.38 bil 2
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Ts = typhoons, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 typhoons, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-A C4s & C5s = typhoons that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*In 2007, Typhoon Usagi may or may not have reached peak intensity before Aug. 1st.


   Dec       C4s & C5s       P-A C4s & C5s  
1980-9 53 13
1990-9 71 14
2000-9 81 27
2010-4 27 (60*) 8 (15*)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 typhoons, P-A C4s & C5s = typhoons that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Northeast Pacific Hurricane Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Hs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       P-A C4s & C5s  
1980 16 15 7 1 0 ? 0
1981 17 15 8 0 79 $134 mil 0
1982 30 23 12 1 ~1000 $2.4 bil 0
1983 26 21 12 5 170 $773.8 mil 2
1984 26 21 13 4 0 ? 2
1985 28 24 13 3 1 $1 mil 2
1986 26 17 9 3 2 $352 mil 1
1987 20 10 4 2 3 $144.22 mil 0
1988 23 15 7 2 3 ? 0
1989 25 17 9 2 ~14 $1.75 mil 0
1990 27 21 16 4 18 ? 1
1991 16 14 10 2 ~3 ? 0
1992 30 28 16 7 17 $2 bil 3
1993 18 15 11 7 42 ~$1.7 bil 1
1994 22 20 10 5 ~34 $735 mil 2
1995 11 10 7 3 124 $31 mil 2
1996 14 9 5 1 41 ? 0
1997 24 19 9 6 531 $551 mil 1
1998 16 13 9 3 23 ~$10 mil 1
1999 14 9 6 1 16 ? 0
2000 21 19 6 1 18 $14 mil 1
2001 19 15 8 2 9 $400 mil 1
2002 19 15 8 4 4 $101 mil 1
2003 17 16 7 0 14 $1 bil 0
2004 17 12 6 2 0 ? 0
2005 17 15 7 1 7 $12 mil 0
2006 25 19 11 3 14 $355 mil 1
2007 15 11 4 1 ~51 $80 mil 0
2008 19 17 7 1 ~45 $152.5 mil 0
2009 23 20 8 3 ~15 $188.7 mil 0
2010 13 8 3 1 ~243 $1.6 bil 1
2011 13 11 10 5 42 ~$203.67 mil 2
2012 17 17 10 1 8 $123.2 mil 1
2013 21 20 9 0 135 $4.2 bil 0
2014 11 11 4 3 9 ? 2
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Hs = hurricanes, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.



   Dec       C4s & C5s       P-A C4s & C5s  
1980-9 23 7
1990-9 39 11
2000-9 18 4
2010-4 10 (*15) 6 (*10)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-August.

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Atlantic Hurricane Seasons 1980-2014

   Yr       TDs       NSs       Hs       C4s & C5s       TFs       TD       P-S* C4s & C5s  
1980 15 11 9 1 256 $1 billion 1
1981 18 12 7 1 10 $45 million 0
1982 9 6 2 1 141 $100 million 0
1983 7 4 3 0 22 $2.6 billion 0
1984 17 13 5 1 35 $66 million 0
1985 13 11 7 1 241 $4.5 billion 0
1986 10 6 4 0 70 $57 million 0
1987 14 7 3 0 10 $73 million 0
1988 19 12 5 3 550 $7 billion 0
1989 15 11 7 2 112 $10.7 billion 0
1990 16 14 8 0 116 $150 million 0
1991 12 8 4 1 30 $2.5 billion 0
1992 9 7 4 1 66 $26 billion 1
1993 10 8 4 0 274 $271 million 0
1994 12 7 3 0 1184 $1.56 billion 0
1995 21 19 11 3 115 $9.3 billion 1
1996 13 13 9 2 179 $3.8 billion 1
1997 9 8 3 0 11 $110 million 0
1998 14 14 10 2 ~12000 $12.2 billion 0
1999 16 12 8 5 465 $5.9 billion 2
2000 19 15 8 2 79 $1.2 billion 0
2001 17 15 9 2 105 $7.1 billion 0
2002 14 12 4 1 23 $2.6 billion 0
2003 21 16 7 2 92 $4.4 billion 1**
2004 17 15 9 4 ~3100 $50 billion 2
2005 31 28 15 5 ~2280 $128 billion 3
2006 10 10 5 0 14 $0.5 billion 0
2007 17 15 6 2 423 $3 billion 1
2008 17 16 8 4 1047 $42 billion 1
2009 11 9 3 1 6 $0.08 billion 1
2010 21 19 12 4 314 $12.36 billion 2
2011 20 19 7 2 114 $18.59 billion 0
2012 19 19 10 0 345 $77.97 billion 0
2013 15 14 2 0 47 $1.51 billion 0
2014 3 2 2 0 1 $13.9 million 0
Legend: Yr = year, TDs = tropical depressions, NSs = named storms, Hs = hurricanes, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, TFs = total fatalities, TD = total damage in US dollars from that year, P-S C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-September.

*The Atlantic basin generally does not produce powerful storms before August, so September has been chosen as the starting point instead.

**Hurricane Fabian may or may not have developed into a Category 4 hurricane before September 1st.


   Dec       C4s & C5s       P-S* C4s & C5s  
1980-9 10 1
1990-9 14 5
2000-9 23 9
2010-4 6 (**15) 2 (**5)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, P-A C4s & C5s = hurricanes that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status before or pre-September.

*The Atlantic basin generally does not produce powerful storms before August, so September has been chosen as the starting point instead.

**Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


The Last 3-4 Decades for All 3 Basins

   Dec       C4s & C5s       "P" C4s & C5s  
1980-9 86 21
1990-9 124 30
2000-9 122 40
2010-4 43 (*107) 16 (*40)
Legend: Dec = decade, C4s & C5s = Category 4 and Category 5 storms, P-A C4s & C5s = storms that reached Category 4 or Category 5 status "prematurely."

*Projected full-decade number based on 4 full years of data (2010-3).


Personally, I think it's rather evident that, despite what could be a slight decrease in numbers by the end of this decade, strong storms are on the rise due to climate change, and are coming earlier in the season perhaps due to warmer oceans.

Monday, August 4, 2014

Another Feather in the Cap of Space-Based Solar Power



Researchers from Aarhus University in Denmark, Vermont Law School, and the CNA Corporation in the US have released two reports which warn that our current means of water-intensive electricity production will result in massive water shortages and become unsustainable by 2040 for the entire planet, and as early as 2020 in some areas.

From the Science Daily article (emphasis mine):

Three years of research show that by the year 2040 there will not be enough water in the world to quench the thirst of the world population and keep the current energy and power solutions going if we continue doing what we are doing today. It is a clash of competing necessities, between drinking water and energy demand...In most countries, electricity is the biggest source of water consumption because the power plants need cooling cycles in order to function. The only energy systems that do not require cooling cycles are wind and solar systems, and therefore one of the primary recommendations issued by these researchers is to replace old power systems with more sustainable wind and solar systems.


Here is a more complete list of solutions from the reports (emphasis mine again):

  • Improve energy efficiency
  • Better research on alternative cooling cycles
  • Registering how much water power plants use
  • Massive investments in wind energy
  • Massive investments in solar energy
  • Abandon fossil fuel facilities in all water stressed places (which means half the planet)


Massive investments in solar power, you say? Ahem.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

How Stupid Are We?

I'll preface this post with the typical, tired, preemptive strike-style disclaimer you seem compelled to make whenever wading into this topic, in order to rob the small-minded of petty, predictable character assassination opportunities...

I don't smoke pot, and, since quitting tobacco a few years back, I hardly partake in any drugs at all these days besides my daily caffeine fix, and a glass of wine, or a delicious Hefeweizen pint every now and then.

Disclaimer now fully disclaimed...

The War on Drugs is a mindless, counterproductive waste of tax dollars that ruins the lives of countless non-violent "offenders." But, fine, if we want to continue operating under the fantasy that maintaining the contraband status of more potent drugs like cocaine, heroin, and meth is doing society at large some imaginary, immaterial favor no one can quite describe or justify in a compelling way, we at the very least have to recognize the pointless absurdity of illegal marijuana and legal alcohol. Here's Sam Harris explaining why this preposterous state of affairs has been foisted upon us, and cutting its puritanical inanity to satisfying pieces in his usual logical and eloquent manner:





When you further contemplate how the drug war impacts the climate because we have determined that another non-intoxicating plant, with a myriad of industrial and transportation sector uses, which come at much lower environmental costs than those of other plants like sugar cane and corn, let alone fossil fuels, should be illegal simply because it looks like and is related to marijuana, well, you have to wonder if we don't deserve disasters of our own making.

Seriously, the stupidity of something so harmless and potentially useful remaining illegal boggles the mind. Especially in light of states legalizing the recreational use of marijuana itself. You can drive to Colorado and Washington to get high, but you can't fill your tank with homegrown biodiesel to get there.

Our silly, self-destructive, negative perceptions of a couple plants beggar belief. I mean, what the hell are we all so afraid of?


Oh noes, our fuel production might make us look like hippies!


Imagine how much we could reduce our emissions if we combined hemp biofuels, which can be sustainably-produced, and require minimal initial investment, with some level of space-based solar power.

Now, if this post hasn't thoroughly infuriated all those conservative-minded climate change deniers out there, who think our emissions cause no climate disruptions at all, let alone ones worth "endangering" the safety and welfare of their innocent children and perfect little drug-free communities (apparently the ubiquity of liquor stores and prescription drugs doesn't count when labeling neighborhoods "drug-free") by legalizing the evil, society-unraveling force that is marijuana and hemp, then lemme really smear some subversive icing on their close-minded cake by embedding what will surely be for them an all too irritating blast from the past.