Do You Share Elon Musk's Pessimism?

"The biggest problem that we have right now is that we have a breakdown in the market system. Now, I'm ordinarily quite a big believer in the market, because the market is just the sum of individuals' decisions, but when there's a breakdown in the information system of the market, that's where things go awry. And so, because there's no price on carbon emissions, it makes things that are carbon-producing very rewarding, because the true price is not being paid. So, if you're a petro-chemical engineer, you can earn a tremendous amount of money, but you really shouldn't be earning that huge amount of money, because it's...you know...anyway, the market mechanism is broken. It's a classic economic problem: the tragedy of the commons."

- Elon Musk

In keeping with the spirit of yesterday's post, that we need to innovate our way out of this mess in order to preserve our modern and technological way of life, I think it's appropriate to hear from one of the most famous and innovative entrepreneurs alive, Elon Musk. He has, after all, released Tesla's patents in order to bring about an industry-wide acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) technology, though his outlook on our prospects as an industrious species may be less than sanguine.





I gotta admit he makes a strong point. We are facing an uphill battle due in large part to the strange way our oil-based economy is orchestrated and analyzed, with little or no recognition or factorization of externalities, and it will only get steeper the more we procrastinate. The dirty "secret" in the climate science community is that no one really talks about a 2C increase in temperature anymore. Many climatologists are contemplating a 4C increase by 2100, and that quite frankly, folks, all but guarantees a shitstorm of despair for future generations.

The research indicates that fewer clouds form as the planet warms, meaning less sunlight is reflected back into space, driving temperatures up further still. The way clouds affect global warming has been the biggest mystery surrounding future climate change.

Professor Steven Sherwood, at the University of New South Wales, in Australia, who led the new work, said: "This study breaks new ground twice: first by identifying what is controlling the cloud changes and second by strongly discounting the lowest estimates of future global warming in favour of the higher and more damaging estimates."

"4C would likely be catastrophic rather than simply dangerous," Sherwood told the Guardian. "For example, it would make life difficult, if not impossible, in much of the tropics, and would guarantee the eventual melting of the Greenland ice sheet and some of the Antarctic ice sheet", with sea levels rising by many metres as a result.

Having said/posted all that, let's make something very clear here. There is a massive and glaring difference between Musk's pessimism, in light of the difficulties we may be facing, and your average denier. Musk is not asking that we don't even discuss the problem and just throw our hands up in inept despair. He has instead decided to do what he can within the confines of our economic system, both by manufacturing EVs rather than crying over technical hurdles and by attempting to stimulate the industry with the release of his patents. Again, the idea is not to voluntarily return to caves in the mountains, or to sit around and wait until business as usual forces us to do so. The idea is to do whatever we can to preserve the rather advanced society we enjoy at the moment.

Oh, Hank, You Commie You

"At the end of the day, the only way we are going to solve the climate challenge and the environmental challenge is to develop and deploy, in-scale, on a cost-effective basis, new technologies."

- Henry Paulson

A couple weeks ago, I made mention of a number of influential politicians, bureaucrats, and financial sector luminaries participating in the release of a bipartisan report on the economic risks of climate change.

One of them, Henry Paulson, the 74th United States Secretary of the Treasury under George W. Bush, has decided to take things a step further and launch an initiative to fund research and push for more aggressive action on reversing global warming.

Careful, Hank. You've seen how the screwball denial machine has tried to disparage another vocal advocate of climate science from across the political aisle, I'm sure.

And I really hope Steven Goddard is sitting down, because Paulson is starting this program in — dun, dun, ddddduuuuuuuunnnnnnn — China.



This video made me realize there's a very, very important point that I don't quite drive home hard enough here at this blog: we need to find ways to reverse man-made climate change while preserving our modern way of life. The idea is NOT for everyone to move back into caves, and grunt, "Ugh, job well done, Grog." The idea is exactly what Paulson intends with this initiative: get our best and brightest to innovate our way out of this mess of our own making. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that that innovation needs to not only prevent a return to the Dark Ages, but also to advance our technology and society as well and propel us into the future. It needs to align our means of powering our civilization with other ambitious human goals.

Entertaining and Lively Old Coot...I Like Him

George Marshall (no, not THAT one) has written a book called Don't Even Think About It - Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change, and just so happens to have more energy than most people half his age. His enthusiasm is infectious, and I think he makes a great point you may not have considered before. Have a watch.

Steven Goddard Relies on Al Gore for His Arctic Information

Most intelligent people interested in the real story of what's going on up in the Arctic due to climate change visit sources like the NSIDC and PIOMAS, or sites that use their data. That's how you get a clear and well-evidenced picture of the disturbing ice loss trend over the past few decades due to our greenhouse gas emissions.







Steven Goddard, however, trusts to his own interpretation of Al Gore's words, so he had the strange idea in his mostly empty head that the Arctic would be ice-free this year. Weird, because I thought that, despite being smitten, climate change deniers like Goddard were against what Al Gore had to say — you know, because he's fat and rich and all that deep and important stuff — and would therefore dismiss his opinion. Nope, turns out hopelessly confused trolls like Goddard are so hopelessly confused that they rely on Grandpa Al for predictions about the Arctic, and are astounded when they turn out to be untrue and more scientifically-accurate sources tell the real story.

Then again, who am I fooling? I mean, these screwball denier trolls have only had about half a decade to figure what Gore was really saying and what prompted it, but, surprise, surprise, they failed to do so.

Maslowski is on the record stating he thought it possible that we'd lose all summer ice cover in the Arctic by 2013. Let's do some math. That is 3.5 years from now. Gore said 75% chance in 5 to 7 years based apparently on personal conversations with Maslowski. You know what? Gore's statement was a conservative estimate relative to what I found Maslowski has said on the record.

Shocking that Goddard and crew are so embarrassingly lost, I know.

Man, Some of You Realists Are Incredibly Patient

Rupert Darwall has written a book entitled The Age of Global Warming in which he accuses the climate science community of blacklisting deniers McCarthy-style. No surprise, the Heartland Institute has featured it in its "Heartland Author Series," and raves about and congratulates Darwall for drawing the following ridiculous conclusion, among others, in his book:

• How politics “settled the science” of global warming in 1992 when the governments of the world agreed to the UN climate change convention at the Rio Earth Summit

Meanwhile, outside Darwall's strange assertions and the Heartland pseudoscience vortex, reality and the worldwide scientific community dedicated to understanding and explaining it continue to insist on settling the science of dangerous man-made climate change.

Darwall was given an opportunity to explain himself and his bizarre opinions on the David Pakman Show, and failed miserably.



Though he by no means let Darwall walk all over him during the interview (I especially liked the anesthesiologist analogy), I gotta say David Pakman is an exceptionally gracious and tolerant person, because my interview would have been much shorter and gone something like this...

"Wwwwwwaaaaaa!!!!!! No one will play with us when we're being crazy and ignorant!!!!!! WWWWWAAAAAAA!!!!1!11!!!11!!"

Deniers Get Major Dope Slap after Failed GOTCHYA!

LOL. How did I miss this?

Back in June, pathetically confused deniers like James Delingpole thought they had a serious GOTCHYA! to use against climate realists with a study about volcanism under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that they totally misunderstood and misconstrued.

From the article Delingpole wrote:

The cause of climate alarmism has suffered yet another devastating setback: new research suggests that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is not, after all disappearing due to man-made global warming, but because it has a volcano underneath.

Only problem for Delingpole, and other denier clowns, is that wasn't what the study said at all. Like anyone, scientists don't like people putting words in their mouths, so authors of the study were quick to denounce and reverse these denier fabrications.

According to Schroeder, Rignot’s paper, and another that came out in May, show that warm oceans are currently the main cause of glacier loss at the edge of the ice.

'The fastest glacial changes are happening where the ocean is warmer,' Schroeder said. 'Geothermal heating is not enough by itself to have caused the observed changes.'

In response to those who are using his study to deny climate change, Schroeder confirmed that volcanic activity is not the dominant force of ice loss and rising sea levels.

'If you want to understand how the glaciers are changing, you can’t just look at the ice, you can’t just look at the climate system, you can’t just look at the geology, you have to look at the whole picture,' he said.

In other words, Delingpole, you can't be a cherry-picking, science-mangling denier idiot. Lucky for you, researchers like Schroeder are too nice to put it in plain language.

Me? Not so much. BTW, did I mention you're an idiot, Delingpole?

Way to Go, Canada

Image source.

Hopefully, you are aware that my post title is intended as sarcasm, and of the growing concern that the Canadian government is muzzling its researchers. Also, that it allegedly short-circuited a press conference two years ago by Canadian scientists who wanted to report the record 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum. Since then, there has been some absurd excuse-making and guesswork over whether or not this was intentional or just plain ole bureaucratic inertia.

If the Harper government did indeed squelch this press conference, it had plenty of political reason to do so, since it would inevitably have been spun into "Harper fiddles while Santa’s workshop sinks due to man-made climate change." This wouldn’t have been true. Nor would it have justified the kind of draconian policies that Mr. Harper has so far avoided.

Well, we now have some fairly damning evidence that the cancellation was purposeful.

Federal scientists who keep a close eye on the Arctic ice would like to routinely brief Canadians about extraordinary events unfolding in the North.

But newly released federal documents show the Harper government has been thwarting their efforts...

The briefing never happened. Nine levels of approval — from the director of the ice service up to the environment minister’s office — were needed for the "communication plan," according to the documents released to Postmedia News under the Access to Information Act.

"Ministerial services" — the sixth layer — cancelled the briefing, the documents say. And the ice service scientists ended up watching as the Canadian media and public got most of their information from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), where scientists were quick to give interviews, hold briefings and issue press releases as the ice shattered records as it melted from Baffin Island to the Beaufort Sea.

Observers say the case is further evidence of the way the Conservative government is silencing scientists.

"It’s suppression through bureaucracy," said Katie Gibbs, executive director of Evidence for Democracy (E4D), an Ottawa-based non-profit pushing for open communication of government science.

"Why is it that we need nine levels of approval for this sort of thing, what’s the justification," said biologist Scott Findlay, a co-founder of E4D and member of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at the University of Ottawa.

He said the government’s "Byzantine message control" is not only wasting time, money and resources, but having a “corrosive” effect on the public service.

Do I even need to mention how unacceptable this is, my Canadian friends? Is it not bad enough that we have idiotic and/or devious deniers misrepresenting the climate science that does get out? Now we have to put up with the science being censored before it can even be disseminated and then willfully mangled by the pseudoscience-loving denier chuckle patch? What is this the geeeeeyawddamn 14th or 15th century all over again?

And let me just make a preemptive strike against complaints that I am unfairly linking all Canadians to the actions of a conservative government. Ummm, you did vote Harper into office, no? Also, it's not like shit like this hasn't happened before. Besides, I am no more lenient with my fellow Americans for electing anti-science/information Bush, and for being a bunch of ignorant fools. So, north and south of the border, if you don't like the criticism, you can all just get over it already, and start bringing your brain with you when you head for the voting booth, and when the pollsters come around as well. We can't put these clowns in office, then try to distance ourselves from their actions, act like we are all so perfectly innocent, and like we played no part. Doesn't work that way.